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There you go. You asked about a 10% chance. This calculated a 6.1% chance. All the NFL sluppers shudder at the thought......Based on this link, the college team could win 6% of the time. Okay. I thought it could be as low as 1% : 1 out of 100 games played.
"Online sports simulations company WhatIfSports.com crunched the numbers and deduced that over the course of 1,001 games, the Browns would beat Alabama 93.9 percent of the time. By a blowout, too: The average score was 33-14."