I should know by now not to wrestle with pigs, because you get dirty and the pig likes it. But...
Decision making under uncertainty requires guessing not only at the probability of events, but also the magnitude of the consequences of the events. I.e. Rumsfeld's "known unknowns"
1. Take the vaccine. Chance of getting severe Covid becomes pretty close to zero. I don't call temporary symptoms like fever, muscle aches etc etc as important.
Chance of something really bad happening from vaccine that we don't yet understand is [X].
2. Don't take the vaccine and get Covid. I don't give a crap about feeling bad for a couple of weeks. I care about the long term pulmonary and cardiac known complications post Covid that will affect me every day for the rest of my life. Depending on your age, low chance but a known risk.
Here is the question: Is the risk of [X] greater or smaller than the risk of a lifelong disability on the small chance you get a severe case of Covid?
Given inherent availability bias, I can tell you that if you have not walked through an ICU full of Covid patients on vents (some of them less than 55 years old with no underlying health problems) you are falsely discounting the risk of getting a severe case of Covid. Maybe because I do, I have a falsely elevated calculation of the risk of severe Covid.
So:
Decision making under uncertainty requires guessing not only at the probability of events, but also the magnitude of the consequences of the events. I.e. Rumsfeld's "known unknowns"
1. Take the vaccine. Chance of getting severe Covid becomes pretty close to zero. I don't call temporary symptoms like fever, muscle aches etc etc as important.
Chance of something really bad happening from vaccine that we don't yet understand is [X].
2. Don't take the vaccine and get Covid. I don't give a crap about feeling bad for a couple of weeks. I care about the long term pulmonary and cardiac known complications post Covid that will affect me every day for the rest of my life. Depending on your age, low chance but a known risk.
Here is the question: Is the risk of [X] greater or smaller than the risk of a lifelong disability on the small chance you get a severe case of Covid?
Given inherent availability bias, I can tell you that if you have not walked through an ICU full of Covid patients on vents (some of them less than 55 years old with no underlying health problems) you are falsely discounting the risk of getting a severe case of Covid. Maybe because I do, I have a falsely elevated calculation of the risk of severe Covid.
So:
