Today is a good example of why you have to be very careful in the market

[sparked1]

VXX and SQQQ hedges did nicely today. 33% and 15%. Amazing, but then again the only green in the portfolio was ZM, SRNE, and GRUB.

Can’t stress it enough. RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS. Thank me in 2-3 years.

 

[Nuke And Juke]

Anyone who has even a single dime in the markets right now would do well to get the hell out of them ASAP! The stock market has been completely disconnected from the real economy and reality itself. The real economy is crashing and burning. The stock market is being propped up by the fed. If today's 1,800 point drop in the DOW wasn't an indicator for you to get out then nothing will be.

Wow...Nothing in what you wrote are true. Are you an economist or certified financial analyst?

Or are you just stirring the pot and creating frenzy?

Curiosity...

 

[Shotgun Surgery]

Wow...Nothing in what you wrote are true. Are you an economist or certified financial analyst?

Or are you just stirring the pot and creating frenzy?

Curiosity...

What, exactly, isn't true about what I posted?

The real economy is the worst it has been since the Great Depression. About 100,000 small businesses have permanently closed so far with thousands more closing every week. These aren't jobs that have temporarily stopped; these are jobs that have been completely destroyed and therefore do not exist anymore. Thousands more close every week, and considering the rampant unemployment it's no surprise that businesses don't have enough customers to stay afloat. Couple this with new, ridiculous regulations concerning COVID19 preventing restaurants from opening at full capacity (which is the only way they operate at a profit) and we are only going to see more businesses close as times goes on.

https://thehill.com/changing-americ...than-100000-small-businesses-have-permanently

As of about a month ago, almost 40 millions Americans applied for unemployment benefits. Considering millions more have been applying every week, it has easily surpassed that already. Keep in mind that the official unemployment rate is notoriously one of the most heavily manipulated statistics the government produces. It doesn't factor in people who are unemployed but aren't looking for work, it incorrectly factors in people who have and require multiple jobs, usually gig jobs like being an Uber driver/etc, just to stay afloat (EG: one person with 3 jobs and two unemployed people = 100% employment rate), and the elderly who are now forced to work that would have otherwise been completely retired. What you think of as the unemployment rate is actually the labor force participation rate. That, currently, is at almost 61%, which means 39% of working age Americans are unemployed.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...llion-have-filed-for-unemployment-since-march

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/21/unemployment-claims-coronavirus/

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate

The United States is as 70% consumer driven economy. If consumers are unemployed and therefore can't consume then it delivers a serious blow to our economy. Considering the record high rates of business closure and therefore joblessness, consumers don't have the money to go out and keep our economy afloat. Despite this, the stock market is soaring. It's said that a fool knows the price of everything and the value of nothing; right now, everyone that pays attention to stock prices but not the value of stocks are just such fools. The best way to determine the value of stocks is a simple price to earnings ratio, and any such measure shows that the stock market is ridiculously overvalued right now. It was ridiculously over valued before the crash in Feburary, and it was still ridiculously overvalued even at the crash's bottom. The markets have never had time to correct and lower to the point of being a good value, and this is because of central bank intervention. In reality, all of our economic woes now are the same woes from 2008, but they were artificially put on hold by the Federal Reserve through easy money monetary policies. It's just now getting to the point where the federal reserve is starting to lose the ability to suspend economic reality. We are currently in a stock market bubble as big as the dot com bubble of 2000. This is *despite* the fact that the real economy is crashing and burning.

https://markets.businessinsider.com...ratio-earnings-unemployment-2020-5-1029197856

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...nings-forecasts-continue-to-plunge-2020-05-06

In addition to all of this, remember when the housing bubble of the mid 2000s nearly caused the economy to collapse? Well we are now in another housing bubble except this time it's even larger. The only way central banks prevented the economy from completely collapsing back in 2008 was by re-inflating this same bubble. At the same time, they also created another stock market bubble and have made other bubbles in things such as auto loans, student loans, consumer debt, corporate debt, government debt, and pretty much every other kind of debt you can imagine.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessec...ing-bubble-20-is-about-to-burst/#20da25266b76

By any objective measure, the economy is crashing and burning. The fact that the stock market is up just goes to show that it has completely divorced itself from reality. A few months ago, a news station had quite an ironic screen shot which has since become quite famous, so I've provided it.

 

[rbstern]

As I stated before, 2nd quarter earnings will be ugly. And that's just the start of the ugly. Much uglier come 3rd quarter, as stimulus funds and extended unemployment benefits are a distant memory.

 

[CliffB]

Anyone who has even a single dime in the markets right now would do well to get the hell out of them ASAP! The stock market has been completely disconnected from the real economy and reality itself. The real economy is crashing and burning. We are undergoing a complete genocide of small businesses. Unemployment is not IS NOT IS NOT only 13%. Real unemployment is about 40% right now, and considering we are in a 70% consumer driven economy, it's pretty much all over. The real economy is crashing and burning, but the stock market is going sky-high despite this. The economic fundamentals mean absolutely nothing to investors right now. The current put to call ratios show that stock market investors are in a mania as insane as the 1920s. In terms of stock price to company profits, stocks right now are in a bubble as big as the dot com bubble of 2000. Real-estate is also in a bubble as massive as the housing bubble of '08. Really, because of central bank policies of easy-money over the past two decades, we are in an everything-bubble. The stock market is being propped up by the fed. If today's 1,800 point drop in the DOW wasn't an indicator for you to get out then nothing will be.

Do what the smartest person in the room is doing and you will usually be fine. Central banks and governments are buying as much gold as they possible can. Central banks and governments can't inflate gold.

So you do not believe Delta, Amazon, Google or Bank of America will be around in 10 years?

 

[lostchild]

So you do not believe Delta, Amazon, Google or Bank of America will be around in 10 years?

Joined ODT yesterday, apparently an expert in all fields, crazy to not take his advice.

 

[GFB]

So you do not believe Delta, Amazon, Google or Bank of America will be around in 10 years?

Easy there, cowboy. Peddle them penny stocks somewhere else.

I share Fallout Boy’s pessimism to some extent but I am optimistic longterm. This thread doesn’t need to become some dumb debate. Not directed at you or anyone else. I like to read the differing points of view.

 

[CliffB]

Easy there, cowboy. Peddle them penny stocks somewhere else.

I share Fallout Boy’s pessimism to some extent but I am optimistic longterm. This thread doesn’t need to become some dumb debate. Not directed at you or anyone else. I like to read the differing points of view.

Saying to pull all money out of the market is ludicrous and Chicken Little-ish. To tell other investors that an investment in BAC is a bad long term decision is poor advice.

 

[GFB]

Joined ODT yesterday, apparently an expert in all fields, crazy to not take his advice.

That doesn’t mean he’s new, does it?

 

[GFB]

Saying to pull all money out of the market is ludicrous and Chicken Little-ish. To tell other investors that an investment in BAC is a bad long term decision is poor advice.

I don’t disagree.