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Inverted yield curve?

Another point- The fear is contributed by weak economics reports from Germany and China. Now China..couldn't that be a signal that the trade impact may be having on their economy? That's food for thought, but I don't think you'll ever hear that type of comment on MSM.

This is absolutely true- Kudlow pointed out last week that the rest of the world's economy has been sputtering for several years. Now with the Chinese facing a drop in sending goods to the US, they are buying more US Treasuries, driving demand for Treasuries up, and the interest it pays down. Our Robust economy can power through the tariff, whereas their's cant.

Most of the Scandanavian countries have been paying either ZERO percent on their treasuries, and are looking at paying NEGATIVE rates going forward. Germany is already paying minus .88%.

https://www.ft.com/content/85c56472-bdcb-11e9-b350-db00d509634e
 
Previous inverted yield curves happened when unemployment and interest rates were high and corporate profits down.
Corporate profits are good due to the tax cuts. We are not in trouble now but others in Europe and Asia are.
The housing market is stable with low mortgage rates. People migrating from high tax to low tax states due to the SALT limit is real.

Negative interest yields are unlikely here as corporations will borrow billions to refinance existing debt creating demand.

China won’t make any deal with Trump but wait and hope he’s not re-elected as the Chinese tend to take a longer term view than we do. They also have a huge Hong Kong problem that won’t be solved easily to keep the communist party occupied.

Their won’t be any significant legislation passed before the 2020 election, infrastructure, gun control or otherwise. It’s too toxic on the hill, pure all out hatred has taken over where as before love of the almighty dollar trumped (punt intended) all.
I’m gonna hold all my dividend paying stocks except tobacco and pick up some CAT - DEA - BP - JNJ -PEP
 
It wouldn't be moving into the 10 year bond. The inverted curve means short term bonds have higher yields than long term bonds. If a 2 year bond pays a higher rate than a 10 year bond, who would buy the 10 year??

Another point- The fear is contributed by weak economics reports from Germany and China. Now China..couldn't that be a signal that the trade impact may be having on their economy? That's food for thought, but I don't think you'll ever hear that type of comment on MSM.

That’s precisely why an inversion is a warning sign. When everyone is buying 10 year bonds it causes the 10 yr. rate to go down. So investors are willing to take a lower interest rate for longer protection, meaning investors think we are in for a rough time in the economy. That’s why it’s warning sign...investors are passing up the 2 year bond with a higher rate, for a much longer term with a lower rate. This usually means only one thing, these investors see trouble on the horizon.

Typically, a inversion indicates a recession is coming in the next 12-20 months.

Now a deal with China, especially a good deal for us, will reignite our economy and the stock market quickly. There are signs the world economy is slowing and that is worrisome as I don’t think that has anything to do with tariffs or trade wars.
 
Previous inverted yield curves happened when unemployment and interest rates were high and corporate profits down.
Corporate profits are good due to the tax cuts. We are not in trouble now but others in Europe and Asia are.
The housing market is stable with low mortgage rates. People migrating from high tax to low tax states due to the SALT limit is real.

Negative interest yields are unlikely here as corporations will borrow billions to refinance existing debt creating demand.

China won’t make any deal with Trump but wait and hope he’s not re-elected as the Chinese tend to take a longer term view than we do. They also have a huge Hong Kong problem that won’t be solved easily to keep the communist party occupied.

Their won’t be any significant legislation passed before the 2020 election, infrastructure, gun control or otherwise. It’s too toxic on the hill, pure all out hatred has taken over where as before love of the almighty dollar trumped (punt intended) all.
I’m gonna hold all my dividend paying stocks except tobacco and pick up some CAT - DEA - BP - JNJ -PEP

First, good call on PEP, you’ve had a nice run! I agree with you in principle. One thing I think about; I think Trump thinks he needs a strong economy and stock market to ensure he is re-elected. I wonder if that will encourage Trump to make a deal and claim victory with China before the next election and just take this issue off the table going into the elections.

Then, after the elections he can “re-visit” the agreement and pound the snot out of China in new negotiations then, because he will have nothing to loose.
 
Corporations do not pay taxes per se. They only collect it and ultimately pass it on to the consumer if possible to maintain their profit structure. Most large corporations can pass it on, smaller ones usually cannot. It is often fomented by large corporations to eliminate competition. It also directs the anger of boobus americanus to the corporations rather than the real culprit.

The real 900 lb gorilla in the room is still monetary collapse. the usd is touted as being strong beause it is loosing the race to the bottom....merely the best looking horse in the glue factory right now.
 
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