So you may have seen this a few days back. Fox News ran a poll that got MSM coverage because it showed that Biden lead Trump by 6% '...if the Presidential election were held today...". Biden had 51% and Trump had 46%, with a 2.5% MoE.
That's not a surprise, we've seen Biden leading in poll after poll. What's interesting is that they also included the data from the same poll in October of 2016 (Hillary instead of Biden obviously), and Hillary was ahead by 10% more than Biden is now (50% to 37%), and look how that turned out for her.
Now it may be that more people are willing to admit they will vote for Trump this time around, but I doubt that would be the whole 10% increase.
One of the other questions is about how interested people were in the elections this year, and on both sides the numbers were the same 10% higher than 2016 as well. That argues that the extra 10% is due to more people being interested rather than 2016 voters being more open about supporting Trump.
There's some other good questions on this poll the MSM ignored.
I liked the one asking people's motivation for voting the way they planned. Trump was 59% 'Enthusiasm for your candidate to win' while Biden was 54% 'Fear the other candidate might win'.
There's some other interesting stuff in the data, some that looks good for Trump (approval over the economy) and some that's not so good, and actually surprising. Things like him coming out lower in people's perception of his mental health than Biden.
I can back that up personally, since Biden's gaffes haven't been covered in the media I've talked to several people who didn't even know what I meant when I said I thought he was in early-stage Alzheimer's. And these weren't hardcore Dems, in fact one of them voted Trump in 2016. It's gotten that little notice by lots of voters.
The link to the actual poll is below.
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews....ete_National_Topline_September-13-Release.pdf
That's not a surprise, we've seen Biden leading in poll after poll. What's interesting is that they also included the data from the same poll in October of 2016 (Hillary instead of Biden obviously), and Hillary was ahead by 10% more than Biden is now (50% to 37%), and look how that turned out for her.
Now it may be that more people are willing to admit they will vote for Trump this time around, but I doubt that would be the whole 10% increase.
One of the other questions is about how interested people were in the elections this year, and on both sides the numbers were the same 10% higher than 2016 as well. That argues that the extra 10% is due to more people being interested rather than 2016 voters being more open about supporting Trump.
There's some other good questions on this poll the MSM ignored.
I liked the one asking people's motivation for voting the way they planned. Trump was 59% 'Enthusiasm for your candidate to win' while Biden was 54% 'Fear the other candidate might win'.
There's some other interesting stuff in the data, some that looks good for Trump (approval over the economy) and some that's not so good, and actually surprising. Things like him coming out lower in people's perception of his mental health than Biden.
I can back that up personally, since Biden's gaffes haven't been covered in the media I've talked to several people who didn't even know what I meant when I said I thought he was in early-stage Alzheimer's. And these weren't hardcore Dems, in fact one of them voted Trump in 2016. It's gotten that little notice by lots of voters.
The link to the actual poll is below.
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews....ete_National_Topline_September-13-Release.pdf