Except for maybe background checks, no firearm bill will pass the Senate this year or next. It’s impossible even if the PNY ditch the filibuster. Why? The votes are not there. There are plenty of purple state Senators who won’t trash their re-election chances.
Background checks, mental health checks, possible (unlikely though). A ban on anything is absolutely impossible and will remain impossible until at least after the 2022 elections. Even then, it’s unlikely. The talk of a ban is nothing but a puppet tool used by people to get higher prices for guns and ammo. The gun producers love this knowing the laws won’t pass, but people will stupidly pay higher prices out of unjustified fear of a ban that won’t happen. It’s B.S manipulation of gun owners.
I'll agree up to a point that any AWB-type legislation is probably a stalking horse meant to get people to look away from the stuff they think they can pass (UBC, extending NICs delays, Red Flag, etc.).
That being said, the GOP is in the minority and there are plenty of RINOs in the Senate that would vote for an AWB after two mass attacks... And probably zero Dems that will go against their party. The Dems are vicious to those who break ranks and gun control is a top priority for them.
If they do get rid of the filibuster then a straight majority would be enough, and they would certainly have the votes for that if the mood was right. Whether they will kill cloture, or the filibuster as a whole is up for grabs. They may be saving that for the HB 1 election scamming legislation.